Election viewer's guide
With the polls closing at various times throughout the country on election night, here are some key races and results to look for when the polls close. All times are Central Standard Time.
5 p.m.: Polls close in Kentucky and most of Indiana.
In Indiana, the key race is the presidential race. Although Indiana tends to favor Republicans in presidential elections, the Obama campaign has made a serious effort to carry the state with a massive ground operation that has been intact since the Democratic primary in May. Simply put, if the presidential race is not called for McCain in Indiana early on, it may be a long night for McCain.
In Kentucky, the key race to watch for is the U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell and his Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford. If this were any other year, McConnell, the minority leader in the Senate, would be heavily favored. But the economy seems to have boosted Lunsford’s chances of election, and if this race doesn’t go the Republican’s way, the Democrats may have a feasible path to their goal of 60 Senate seats, which would be a filibuster-proof majority.
6 p.m.: Polls close in Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, and Vermont
The Obama campaign has spent a lot of money in Virginia, including advertising in the very expensive Washington, D.C. media market in an attempt to turn the state blue. However, the state has not voted for a Democrat in the presidential election in 40 years.
As a result of their efforts, the Obama campaign has opened up a clear lead in most Virginia polling, and if Virginia is called for Obama, McCain’s path to victory becomes increasingly difficult. One factor that may help Obama in the state is the U.S. Senate race, in which Democrat Mark Warner is heavily favored against Republican Jim Gilmore.
Florida, which has 27 electoral votes, will be another key race to watch. Not only is the presidential race in the state close, but Florida also has several close U.S. House races. The Diaz-Balart brothers, Lincoln and Mario, Republicans who represent districts in southern Florida, are both in trouble. Watch for the turnout in the Tampa area, which is a key swing area for both campaigns. Additionally, it will be interesting to see the effect that early voting has had on the state, as there have been reports of massive lines throughout the state for early voting.
The two other states to watch are New Hampshire and Georgia. In Georgia, McCain is favored in the polls, but there have been a disproportionately high turnout of African American voters in Georgia’s early voting, a factor which carried Obama to victory in the state’s Democratic primary. In New Hampshire, Obama is in the lead in most polls, but the Senate race is drawing the most attention, as Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is favored to top incumbent Republican John Sununu.
6:30 p.m.: Polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina
Out of these three states, Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, is the traditional attention grabber. The Buckeye State, which handed the presidency back to George Bush in 2004, is again a key swing state in the presidential race, although Obama has opened up a lead in recent polling. It will be interesting to see how Obama performs in the more rural areas in the state, which carried Hillary Clinton to victory in the Democratic primary. In order for McCain to win the state, he will need to swamp Obama in the rural areas, such as western and southern Ohio, and hope that turnout in the two major cities, Cleveland and Columbus, isn’t as high as expected.
North Carolina is another fascinating state in this election. The Tarheel State is not only a battleground in the presidential level, but features a fascinating Senate race between Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole and Democrat challenger Kay Hagan. Both races will swing on African-American turnout and turnout in the major college towns in the state. If Obama can maximize that turnout while not getting swamped in the more rural and conservative areas in the state, he may eke out an upset victory.
7 p.m.: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas
This will be the biggest closing time, as one-third of all the state polls close. Of those states, McCain is favored in Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, while Obama is the favorite in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Jersey.
Besides Missouri, which is expected to be extremely close, Pennsylvania, which has 21 electoral votes, is a state to watch. The McCain campaign has been pouring a lot of their resources into the state, hoping to flip a previously Democratic state red. If McCain is able to pull off an upset with his electoral vote count is more feasible. However, Obama is expecting a big turnout in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh regions to offset McCain’s expected margins in the more rural parts of Pennsylvania (known as the “T”) In the state, the key region to watch will be Scranton, an economically devastated part of the state that helped boost Kerry to victory in 2004.
7:30 p.m.: Polls close in Arkansas
Arkansas may be the only state in which there is a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators, yet favors McCain in the polls.
8 p.m.: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Wyoming
There are several fascinating races in this time block. For one, the presidential contest in Colorado should be interesting. The Obama campaign has put a lot of resources in Colorado, and the state is shifting as a whole, as the economically prosperous Denver suburbs continue to grow while the more conservative, rural part of the state shrinks. Obama is looking for a large turnout in Denver and Boulder, and has invested resources in the more conservative Colorado Springs area in order to avoid getting swamped there.
The Senate race in Minnesota between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken has also been very entertaining. Although Coleman started out the race with an advantage, Franken has been boosted with the economic downturn. Currently, the race is effectively tied in almost all of the polling, and the presence of strong independent candidate Dean Barkley, who is drawing around 20 percent in the polling, has made the race even more unpredictable.
9 p.m.: Polls close in Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah
Iowa and Nevada are the closest races. Obama is looking to take Nevada, where the early voting numbers have been favorable to his campaign. In addition, there are also a couple of competitive House races in Nevada, with GOP Reps. Dean Heller and Jon Porter both facing strong Democratic challengers. The Latino vote, which makes up a fourth of the state population, is the key demographic in the state.
Iowa is another state that Obama is looking to flip. He has polled strongly there all year, and his massive primary organization has also helped in the general election. In the state, McCain’s previous opposition to corn ethanol and his decision to cede the state in the Republican primary has hurt him in the state.
10 p.m.: Polls close in California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington
Obama is favored in all of these races, so the most interesting race here may be the Senate race in Oregon, where incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is facing a fierce challenge from Democrat Jeff Merkley. Initially, Smith was the favorite, but as the economic downturn began being felt in the state, Merkley began improving in the polls. He may be helped by Obama’s presidential campaign, which is expected to win Oregon.
11 p.m.: Polls close in Alaska
Although the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin might have guaranteed Alaska for the Republicans, it has not helped incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, who was convicted last week of seven felony counts of corruption. Stevens, who is well known for his ability to bring pork to the state, may fall to Democrat Mark Begich. Also, Republican Rep. Don Young may fall in the house, leaving Alaska, a traditionally Republican state, with a Democratic Senator and a Democratic House member.