Fantasy Football: Unpredictable first-rounders
This is the first entry in a weekly series of fantasy football analysis.
Following the recent success of his new album Man on the Moon, Kid Cudi released a new demo tape of songs that didn’t make the cut for the album.
My favorite song on the demo tape, “I Be," (which should have been on the album instead of “Make Her Say”) pretty much sums up my fantasy experience after four weeks: “I be high, then I be low, I be low, then I be high.”
If your team has been anything like mine, this year has been a constant struggle for consistency. Last week I would have said stick to your guns and duke it out another week, but if your players still have been really disappointing, it might be time to trade.
However, there’s no need to panic because chances are the other owners are in the same boat.
This year has been as unpredictable as anything I have ever seen. The top 11 players going into the year seem to be indicative of the year as a whole. Below are some things to consider about your trusted first-rounder.
Top 11
Some stats on this year’s top draft picks this year. I’m just saying…
-- Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson scored more in the first week than in the next three weeks combined. After Week One it has been a struggle to get past the line of scrimmage.
-- Atlanta’s Michael Turner is averaging 3.5 yards a carry and less than 10 fantasy points a game.
-- Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew has been a model for inconsistency with fantasy scoring weeks of 17, 7, 31 and 9.
-- Sure the San Diego Chargers’ LaDainian Thomlinson has been injured, but do you trust he’s healthy and ready to go? I definitely don’t.
-- It took playing the Detroit Lions for Matt Forte to have his first 100-yard game and touchdown of the season. Despite speculation, it seems the Bears' mantra has changed with the presence of Jay Cutler.
-- DeAngelo Williams hasn’t been terrible when he gets the ball, but this year the 0-3 Panthers are throwing 15 more passes per game than they did last year. Their defense has been getting rocked, and playing from behind is really hurting Williams.
-- Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t had a 100-yard game this season.
-- Steven Jackson has been surprisingly decent for the dismal St. Louis Rams, but still has not seen the end zone.
-- You might remember Chris Johnson’s monster game when he lit up the Texans for 280 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. But keep in mind the winless Titans are falling fast and Johnson hasn’t had a touchdown or 100 yards in his other three games. Like DeAngelo Williams, playing from behind isn’t helping.
-- Houston’s Andre Johnson is more of the same: one monster game, yet he hasn’t cracked 10 fantasy points in his other three games.
-- New England’s Randy Moss might be the only redeemable player of this group. Besides one bad week of two points, Moss has had three weeks of double-digit points.
Quarterbacks:
The “reliable” quarterbacks have been slightly better. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger have all been very solid. However, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb (though he has been injured) and Tony Romo have all been brutal.
Brees, after looking like the steal of the year after two huge weeks, has had games of four and seven points. Meanwhile, Brady’s average scoring is less than David Garrard, Cutler, and Brett Favre. Yikes. It gets worse for Romo, whose average is worse than Kyle Orton, and just a notch above the likes of Jason Campbell and Kerry Collins.
For some of these guys (Turner, Jackson, Johnson, Fitzgerald, Brady, Romo) it might be time to sell their name and not their value.
The other guys you might want to shop, but its not going to kill you if you hold onto them.
But then again, what do I know, my teams are struggling just as much as everyone else.
