Sports Blog — October 24, 2009
Fantasy Football: Looking beyond the top two running backs
Adrian Peterson of the Vikings and the Jaguar’s Maurice Jones-Drew are the top two scoring running backs in standard fantasy leagues. That’s no surprise since they were drafted to perform to that caliber.
However, the breakdown after those two is surprising: the Raven’s Ray Rice, the Dolphin’s Ronnie Brown, the Titan’s Chris Johnson, the Jet’s Thomas Jones and the Bengal’s Cedric Benson.
If we take a closer look at these numbers we can weed out Johnson since his numbers were inflated after a 45-point Week Two. My blog last week focused on my man crush on that bad little dude Rice. Check out last week’s blog entry for more information about his situation.
Don’t look now but Brown is a top five back. After a bad Week One, Brown’s lowest scoring week is 11, with his other three games more than 20. He is looking better than a lot of other backs and you might be able to get him cheaply if you act quickly.
Even more, his playoff matchups (Weeks 14, 15 and 16) are out of this world. He faces the Jaguars, Titans and Texans. The Jags and the Titans have two of the worst defensives in the NFL, so you can basically ride Brown to your championship game.
Although I’m set on Brown, I don’t quite know what to make of Jones. He exploded against the Bills last week, but they also have the worst rushing defense in the NFL. What worries me most about Jones is he is in a running back by committee with two other solid backs, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. Washington has been getting double digit carries most games. I see too much talent in that backfield to trust Jones. Furthermore, the team just reminds me of Mike Shanahan’s Broncos and how he seemed to deliberately destroy fantasy teams.
Lastly, big ups to Benson coming out of nowhere. The Bengal’s running back is third in rushing yards and is turning into a reliable running back. The team struggled against the Texans last week, but that was largely because the Bengals were playing from behind after giving up two scores. However, tread carefully with Benson because his upcoming schedule includes the Bears, a bye week, the Ravens and the Steelers. His schedule lightens up a bit after and I think you can expect him putting up some solid stats along the lines of 80 yards and scattered touchdowns.
Predicting fantasy football week-to-week can be hard, but looking into the future and finding trends is just a matter of looking at stats. Check out any site, such as ESPN, to get your fix.
