Budget numbers hard to predict
Published Feb. 1, 2005
Although the UM system warmly greeted news of a flat higher education budget proposal from Gov. Matt Blunt, it seems it's still too early to know the final numbers.
Looking at the past two budgets provides little certainty. Both began as flat proposals, similar to this year's budget. Their respective fates, however, were different.
In last year's budget, the UM system's proposed funding rose $12 million by the time the budget was finally implemented. For fiscal year 2004, however, the UM system lost nearly $23 million during budget debates.
Beyond those two years, proposals and eventual appropriations have been fairly consistent. Dating back to the budget for fiscal year 2001, final budget numbers have not strayed more than $200,000 from their original proposals.
Explanations for the recent instability are mixed.
Rep. Ed Robb, R-Columbia, said recent fluctuations in budget numbers were due mostly to former Gov. Bob Holden.
"Gov. Holden never really had a real budget," Robb said. "All of his budgets were predicated on a significant tax increases."
Robb said Holden's budgets would always include $700 or $800 million in proposed tax increases.
Sen. Chuck Graham, D-Columbia, said the past few years' numbers influenced midyear adjustments. He said there could still be withholdings in the budget, and they are also a possibility for next year's budget.
"It depends on the economy," Graham said. "These estimates are always educated guesswork. A lot of times it's not until tax returns come in until you know how much money you'll get."
UM system spokesman Joe Moore said things like midyear withholdings could still affect the final numbers, but he feels confident the UM system will receive a flat appropriation similar to the one Blunt proposed last week.
"We have to make budgetary assumptions based on the governor's recommendation in order to proceed with the coming year," Moore said. "Right now we feel confident that (a flat appropriation is) what Gov. Blunt is going to support."
Graham, the assistant minority floor leader for the Senate, said Blunt's proposed appropriations might be subject to change.
"We're still going to have to find money to cover a $239 million shortfall," Graham said. "I would not be entirely confident that the (higher education) budget will be a flat appropriation."
Rep. Judy Baker, D-Columbia, said she is also concerned about a possible lack of revenue to cover the governor's budget plan.
"I'm waiting to hear where all the obligations of budget will be," Baker said.
Although she sais she is skeptical of the budget situation, Baker said she felt there hasn't been enough time to see the stability of such programs like K-12 education and higher education funding.
"I'm going to trust there is a plan," Baker said.
Robb said Blunt's higher education proposal is adequate.
"It's a good beginning point," Robb said. "(Blunt) wanted to try and hold higher education at its current levels. Given the budget situation, that's probably the best we can do this year."
Robb said the General Assembly wanted to take care of K-12 funding this year, and next year restore some of the funding cuts higher education has taken throughout the past few years.
UM system funding hit a high mark in fiscal year 2002 with final appropriations of more than $458 million.