Column: Republican Iowa Caucus 2008 betting guide
Published Dec. 7, 2007
Hello once again, loyal readers. With December upon us, it's crunch time for the Iowa caucuses.
Well, mes amis, without further adieu, I present The Maneater betting guide for the 2008 Iowa Republican caucus.
Mitt Romney: (Even) Mitt has been polling strong in Iowa for months. Want to know where he stands? Tough, because this man will read your mind and tell you what you want to hear.
Because of heavy spending and a lot of campaign events in Iowa, Romney's seen a slow and steady rise in his polls since last November, mostly at the expense of Rudy Giuliani. His only sticking points are the fact that he's Mormon and that some doubt his conservative credentials in light of his moderate policies as governor of Massachusetts. Romney's giving a major speech on his Mormonism as this issue goes to press.
Mike Huckabee: (2:1) The Governor of Arkansas is either most famous for losing a hundred-odd pounds or being endorsed by Chuck Norris. In any case, this man from Hope has been surging fast, both in Iowa and in other primary states, although he's short on cash. As an ordained minister, he's had no trouble drawing evangelicals to his cause but because of his relatively moderate policies as governor of Arkansas, he's drawn the ire of the Club for Growth type Republicans.
Rudy Giuliani: (10:1) 9/11. 9/11. 9/11. Sorry, but Sen. Joe Biden said it best when he said "Rudy Giuliani's campaign consists of a noun, a verb and 9/11." Rudy has been slipping in the Iowa polls for about 13 months now. He never has spent as much time in Iowa as he has in other places, probably hoping the Feb. 5 primary states will give him a late surge. Add to that strategy the discovery that Giuliani used New York City funds to pay for visits to his mistress and Giuliani looks like he's done in Iowa.
Fred Thompson: (20:1) Does Fred Thompson even want to be president? Much like Warren Harding, Fred hasn't given a rat's ass about campaigning. We all know Fred's incorrigibly lazy, which may be why he's been focusing on South Carolina and his home state of Tennessee. It's a lot easier to walk around when it's warm. Thompson was the hope of conservatives for a few months, but he's turned out to be more Ronald Reagan a la "Bedtime for Bonzo" than Reagan circa 1980.
Ron Paul: (20:1) Your dark horse, the 10-term Republican Congressman from Texas has drawn the ire of his party for not supporting the Iraq War or the Patriot Act. His supporters are everywhere and they are dedicated (he raised $4.3 million on Nov. 5 alone, all online). He's seen quite a surge in the polls lately, but not in Iowa. I've included him in here because a lot of his support is under-the-radar, and comes from people who don't get polled that often. There is a possibility for Dr. Paul to play the spoiler here and end up with around 5 to 7 percent of the vote.
All in all, I'm going to have to pick Romney on this one. Although Huckabee is within the margin of error with Romney in some polls, I have a feeling that a lot of Huckabee's support is softer than it seems. Keep in mind that the Iowa caucuses are different than any other state's primaries; there's a huge emphasis on neighbors convincing each other to vote for certain candidates. It's really up to Romney right now to seal the deal, and he could have done that with his speech about Mormonism in Dallas on Thursday.
avtty5@mizzou.edu