Oscar Buzz

By Dan Moore and Patrick Daugherty

Published Feb. 23, 2007

Who Will Win (Patrick Daugherty, Arts and Entertainment Editor)

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

The Academy's fascination with giving Oscars to roles that feature easily imitated historic luminaries continues with Whitaker's fiery performance as former Ugandan dictator Idi Amin.

(Should Win: Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson," Where Is: Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed," Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan")

Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

In an abominable year for leading actresses, Helen Mirren takes the cake for abiding by the Academy's rule that the more recognizable your character is, the more likely you are to win (see Jamie Foxx, Reese Witherspoon, Cate Blanchett, Philip Seymour Hoffman, etc.). Not that anyone else deserves it anyway.

(Should Win: Mirren, Where Is: Shareeka Epps, "Half Nelson")

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"

The Academy loves independent film. Only the indie film they nominated was distributed by Fox and the indie actor they nominated was Alan Arkin. To make up for snubbing their indie darling in every other category, they'll throw Arkin and "Little Miss Sunshine" a bone here. Besides, who doesn't love an old dude taking home one of the supporting actor awards?

(Should Win: Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed," Where Is: Jack Nicholson, "The Departed")

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

"Dreamgirls" surely has to win something, right? 2006's most ballyhooed, tailor-made-for-the-Oscars movie was shockingly shut out of the major categories. Since the Academy is all about make-up awards, expect Hudson to take home the hardware. Especially since an old dude is probably winning Best Supporting Actor (remember for the supporting awards: one old fogy and one young up-and-comer.)

(Should Win: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine," Where Is: Is it possible to nominate less than five people?)

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

"The Departed" is not "Raging Bull" or "Goodfellas," but even the Academy displays heart (and sense) every once in a while. The year's obvious sympathetic (and right) choice, Scorsese, will finally win after being snubbed for his recent epics "The Aviator" and "Gangs of New York." It doesn't hurt that he actually did the best job, too. But the Academy has deemed Kevin Costner a better director than Scorsese before, so anything is possible.

(Should Win: Scorsese, Where Is: Guillermo del Toro, "Pan's Labyrinth")

Best Picture: "The Departed"

In a year where there is little justice in the nominations, some is found here. Easily better than all four of the other nominated films (its only contemporary, "Pan's Labyrinth," wasn't nominated), "The Departed" should finally bring Scorsese his first (or maybe second by that point) Oscar. His films, though often seminal, have been snubbed time and time again. "The Departed" might not even be in his top five, but it injected some desperately needed life into Hollywood's stale thrillers. It looks as if the Academy might let the actual best movie win for once, rather than the most preachy. May God be with you, Martin.

(Should Win: "The Departed," Where Is: "Pan's Labyrinth")

Who Should Win (Megan Becwar, Movie Columnist)

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Whitaker is one of my favorite actors, but he has always played the same smiling, magnanimous friend of the main character. See "The Crying Game," "Phenomenon," etc. His turn as the smiling, murderous Butcher of Uganda is quite frankly the scariest thing I've ever seen, and I commend the big guy for it.

(Will Win: Forest Whitaker, Where is: Christian Bale, "The Prestige")

Best Actress: Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"

I really disliked this silly, insulting film, but Meryl Streep is likely the greatest living actress, and she should win for everything. She should have been nominated for her role in "Stuck on You." That said, she is also the most nominated actor of all time, and others need a turn. So right on, Mirren.

(Will Win: Helen Mirren, "The Queen," Where Is: Sook-Yin Lee, "Short Bus")

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"

On the back of the cassette box for "Stand and Deliver," we are told that's just what the film does. My friend Ivy commented, "Then it should be called 'Make You Cry.'" The scene in which Arkin helps alleviate a small child's fear of getting fat in "Little Miss Sunshine" should bear the same title.

(Will Win: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls," Where Is: Michael Caine, "The Prestige")

Best Supporting Actress: Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Hudson wasn't that great, and I don't know why people are making such a big deal about her. She was passable, but all the other nominees blow her away. Kikuchi in particular is commendable. Babel is her first English film, and the role is much more nuanced than anything Hudson is ready for.

(Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls," Where Is: I'm afraid they have it covered. All the other roles went to Scarlett Johansson.)

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Give Scorsese a break. He might not be as good as he once was, but hand the man a statuette already. I only hesitate because I question to what we will now compare surprising, offbeat or unfair wins? "Eddie Murphy 1, John Waters 0"? It just doesn't make any sense.

(Will Win: Martin Scorsese, Where is: Guillermo Del Toro, "Pan's Labyrinth")

Best Picture: "Little Miss Sunshine"

We always hear that comedy is harder than tragedy. I'm not sure that's the case, but I think "Little Miss Sunshine" is just plain better than "Babel." Maybe it's not as "important" or "explosive," but it's more enjoyable and in many ways deeper. And it's got the sarcastic lab guy from "CSI." Can't go wrong there.

(Will Win: "Babel," Where Is: "The Prestige," "Short Bus")

Where Is...? (Dan Moore, Movie Columnist)

Best Actor: Christian Bale, "The Prestige"

I'm not above using a weak field to give a glorified lifetime achievement award. O'Toole's performance in "Venus" gracefully managed what could have been a creepy pseudo-romance between an elderly man and a young woman. Its sudden relevance in the wake of Anna Nicole Smith's death, I take it, will not be considered.

(Will Win: Peter O'Toole, "Venus," Should Win: O'Toole)

Best Actress: Ivana Baquero, "Pan's Labyrinth"

Play a real person and the Academy gives you an Oscar for your troubles. Somewhere, Dana Carvey is plotting his comeback. Mirren, playing her third Queen of England, might as well spend the night of the ceremony knitting little, statue-sized clothes. Baquero's performance as Ofelia, apparently, was too lovely and understated to merit consideration, or else they didn't want to risk a sweep of the actress categories to the under-13 set.

(Will Win: Helen Mirren, "The Queen," Should Win: Mirren)

Best Supporting Actor: Steve Carrell, "Little Miss Sunshine"

"Little Miss Sunshine"'s ensemble cast was as deep as any in recent memory. Arkin's addict Grandpa carries the film through its slow-building first hour, and Carrell's shift in roles from "The Office"'s Michael Scott to a disaffected Bill Murray-type is startling. The most inexplicable nomination is Wahlberg, whose stomping, manic character in "The Departed" was less developed than the Funky Bunch's second LP.

(Will Win: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine," Should Win: Arkin)

Best Supporting Actress: Maribel Verdú, "Pan's Labyrinth"

Hudson, already adored in the media because she's too big to be a pop star (as judged by the media), gained an additional 20 pounds for her role in "Dreamgirls" and is therefore invincible. I'll pass; thin or not, she caterwauls each note like she's auditioning for the role of tornado siren. (Don't get me wrong, though, I loved her turn as "Dreamgirls" co-star Eddie Murphy's overbearing wife in "Norbit.") Abigail Breslin's pitch-perfect performance was critical to "Little Miss Sunshine"'s success. A more self-aware child actress would have ruined it. Maribel Verdú's violent encounter with the captain prompted the loudest cheers I have ever heard in a theater.

(Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls," Should Win: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine")

Best Director: John Curran, "The Painted Veil"

"The Departed" is not a great movie. It was badly plotted, and its characters seemed ordered out of a suspense movie catalogue. But Scorsese's direction was impossibly tight. To take such a confused script and make it not only watchable, but also entertaining, is a remarkable achievement. "The Painted Veil" was shot on a shoestring budget, but it managed to evoke the wonder of the colonial Orient and the look of its time incredibly well. Somehow, it wasn't nominated for a single Oscar.

(Will Win: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed," Should Win: Scorsese)

Best Picture: "The Painted Veil"

Can we get a mulligan on this one? It's very possible that the three best films of the year ("The Painted Vain," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Prestige) didn't get nominated. Sermon Watch 2007: "Babel," like "Crash" before it, is in the running entirely on the strength of its shrill Hollywood-friendly message. If nothing else, "Little Miss Sunshine" knew exactly when to stop taking itself seriously. Maybe the Academy could learn the same lesson.

(Will Win: "Babel," Should Win: "Little Miss Sunshine")