South Carolina primary could be decisive
South Carolina and Florida are next in line to have presidential primaries.
Published Jan. 25, 2008
In past elections, the South Carolina primaries have been decisive for Republican presidential hopefuls — more so than for Democrats. Since 1980, every winner of the Republican primary in the state has advanced to the party's nomination and the subsequent general election.
But with the Republican slate far from narrowed, South Carolina might soon lose its reputation as a key Republican battleground, and the Democrats might face a real test Jan. 26 when the party's primary is held there.
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won the state's Jan. 19 GOP primary, just three percent ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. His victory in South Carolina was his second after his surprise win in New Hampshire.
Huckabee won the Iowa caucus, the campaign's first nominating event, Jan. 3.
McCain placed fourth in the event.
"I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party," McCain said in his victory speech. "We have a ways to go, of course. There are some tough contests ahead."
At the Nevada caucus, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney claimed his third win in a nominating contest with a commanding 51 percent of the vote.
He took the Michigan primaries and the lesser-known Wyoming caucus.
"If we were lucky enough to win Michigan and Nevada, that would be a pretty clear indication that we would be going on to win the White House," Romney said in his victory speech.
In Florida, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has led the polls for most of the campaign.
Giuliani failed to garner a significant number of votes from any of the nominating contests held thus far, and routed his campaign trail mostly through Florida and Super Tuesday states.
Despite the tight numbers, the campaign remains confident about the candidate in Florida, which is a popular destination for retirees from the New York City area, Giuliani campaign spokesman Elliott Bundy said.
"The campaign has always expected this race to be competitive," Bundy said.
While five candidates remain on the Democratic ticket, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., holds a slight lead over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in the national polls, but trails him in by double digits in South Carolina.
According to the latest SurveyUSA poll, former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., has 15 percent of the vote among registered Democrats in South Carolina, while Clinton, is in second place with 36 percent.
State Sen. Wes Shoemyer, D-Clarence, who has endorsed Edwards' candidacy, said the Edwards campaign is "still optimistic" and that there has not yet been any talk of the former senator leaving the race.
"When his message gets out, the votes will come," Shoemyer said.
Clinton won Nevada, but with less than 5 percent more of the caucus-goers' votes than Obama.
Clinton has won New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan, as well, but because of Michigan's violation of a ruling from the Democratic National Committee that seeks to curtail states from having primaries before Super Tuesday, Edwards and Obama did not include their names on the Michigan ballot.
In December, the DNC ruled that Michigan's delegates would be stripped of their voting powers at the Democratic National Convention if the state held a primary before Feb. 5.
The same penalty was levied upon Florida in August, and thus, the Democratic candidates have been urged to keep their names off the ballot there, too.
The convention made exceptions for South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.
The Republican National Committee took half of the delegates away from states that were not approved to have early nominating contests.
MU communications professor William Benoit said the two parties have been trying to restrict states from having early primaries, called front-loading, in which states seek to gain notoriety from the campaign.
"The states want to be earlier to be given prominence," Benoit said. "States want to be important."
Benoit said although victories in Michigan and Florida by Democratic candidates would not gain them the voting power of the delegates in those states, candidates who are victorious there could still cultivate perceptions that they are viable presidential hopefuls.