A look at the Iowa caucuses
Political Columnist Asim Thakore analyzes caucus results and takes a look at what's ahead in the race for president.
Jan. 4, 2008
The dust is still settling in Iowa after the state's Jan. 3 presidential caucuses. On the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois scored a victory, besting his chief rivals, Senators John Edwards of North Carolina and Hillary Clinton of New York by a margin of 39 percent to 30 percent to 29 percent, respectively.
In the race for the GOP nomination, Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister and the former governor of Arkansas, came in first, underscoring the importance of the evangelical Christian vote in the Republican Party.
Huckabee scored an upset victory over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who had outspent all Republican candidates in Iowa by millions. Rounding out the right's field were former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who came in a strong fifth with 10 percent of the vote. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani placed sixth with a dismal 4 percent, though it should be noted that Giuliani effectively ignored Iowa in favor of states with later primaries.
So now that the results are in, what to make of them?
Obviously, Obama and Huckabee are the clear winners. Obama's victory over Edwards and Clinton was in large part due to his support among younger voters and Independents. The Democratic caucuses saw a record turnout of more than 200,000 voters, many of whom caucused for Obama. The Illinois senator's success was due in large part to his campaign's message of change, and polling showed that before the caucuses, Iowans preferred a candidate who promised change over one who was campaigning on experience (Clinton). Edwards' success is no real surprise, as he had a very effective ground organization in Iowa and had been campaigning harder than most of his opponents for a longer time. Edward's message of standing up for the middle class resonated with Iowans, especially those in rural areas, and many feel that Edwards, if given the money and press coverage enjoyed by Obama and Clinton, could have won the state.
Going into Jan. 3, the Republican field in Iowa was muddled, though many wondered if Huckabee could overcome the millions Romney spent. It's now clear that Romney's expensive field organization was no match for Huckabee's support among evangelical voters, who used existing networks such as prayer groups and churches to turnout his base. Thompson came in third, which is mildly surprising given that the Law and Order candidate has been challenging President Warren G. Harding for the laziest campaign in history (Harding never left his front porch). McCain's fourth is indeed a very good showing for him, considering he skipped the Iowa caucuses altogether in 2000, and that his campaign seemed to be on life support for much of the summer and fall.
So, what now?
New Hampshire is up next, on Tuesday. The fact that the two primaries are so close together really prohibits the candidates from making significant advertising buys, though they will no doubt try. The latest reliable poll (from Rasmussen Reports) showed Clinton in the lead in the Granite State, followed by Obama, then Edwards. This poll should be taken with a large grain of salt, as it was conducted Dec. 18.
Obama will be looking to carry his momentum forward and "upset" Clinton in a state that was billed as her "firewall" by the traditional media. Edwards will no doubt campaign tirelessly once again, seeking to emphasize the fact that he is indeed a candidate of change, but also that his message of change is very different from Obama's. It will be interesting to see if New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, polling at 8 percent due in large part to his strong anti-war platform, will retain his support with low cash reserves.
As far as the Republicans go, the race is even more muddled in New Hampshire than it was in Iowa.
New Hampshire Republicans are an odd breed, with a strong independent/libertarian streak. Although the conventional wisdom says Romney must win in his own backyard, his resources and nationwide organization are so vast that a second place showing wouldn't knock him out of the race. Don't look at Mike Huckabee to place first in a state that isn't full of evangelicals. McCain is surging in the polls, and I expect Paul, although ignored by the media, to have a strong showing in New Hampshire as well.
It's really going to come down to the Independents; 45 percent of registered voters in New Hampshire are registered as Independents. Will the independents break for McCain or for Obama? If they break for Obama as they did in Iowa, he could very well win the state. If they break more for McCain, I don't expect an Obama victory, as Democrats in Iowa turned out more for Clinton. Also look for Paul to grab a large chunk of those Independents; his supporters are dedicated, almost to the point of fanaticism.
The biggest event remaining between now and Tuesday for both parties is the joint ABC/Facebook debates on Saturday night. Whoever has the strongest showing in these debates will no doubt experience a bump in the polls, perhaps one strong enough to carry them to victory.
More Jan. 4, 2008 News Stories
- A look at the Iowa caucuses — Political Columnist Asim Thakore analyzes caucus results and takes a look at what's ahead in the race for president.
- Huckabee, Obama celebrate victories in Iowa — Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee claimed victory in Iowa on Thursday and could possibly shape ...
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