Experts disagree about economic effects on crime

Evidence is mixed on connection between crime rate and economic growth.

By Krissy Tripp

Published Oct. 24, 2008

With the economy in a downward spiral, some speculate the crime rate is ready to skyrocket. There are many factors that could affect the crime rate, but evidence can be found to support either side of issue.

During recent years, the economy and the crime rate correlate negatively, meaning when one measure goes up, the other goes down. According to a government study published Feb. 11, the years 2006 and 2007 showed an increase in economic growth. The FBI reports a drop in the crime rate during those years.

If correlations did mean causation, which they do not, the current economic downfall might lead to a jump in the crime rate.

Psychological sciences professor Kennon Sheldon speculated psychology could play a role in the correlation. Sheldon said it's possible economic hurting can make one engage in crime, or when one feels betrayed by the system or executives who benefit from the situation, antisocial behavior can occur.

On a local level, MU Police Capt. Brian Weimer said MUPD records show no indication that the crime rate is affected by the economy.

On the broader scope, The New York Times links the crime rate closely to the economy by citing the historic murder highs that New York saw in the years following the stock market crash of 1987. The newspaper reported the financial crisis of the 1970s resulted in abandoned neighborhoods, school failings and an increasing crime rate. Robberies increased during these years until they peaked in 1981 with an average of 294 robberies a day.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics reported that from 1992 until 2005, the rate of arrests and reports steadily increased, and the crime rate for violent and property crimes dropped considerably. Arrests for adult drug abuse increased during all of those years while juvenile drug abuse arrests remained steady. There was no information given about how many drug-abusing adults were reported.

Statistics also show during these years the number of people under a form of correctional supervision including prison, jail, parole and probation also increased. More law enforcement did correlate with crime rate.

Even though reports for law enforcement were increasing during this time frame, the national economy was also making a steady increase, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.