Bidding war worth it?
Published Oct. 27, 2008
A year after two high-profile starting pitchers, Johan Santana and Dan Haren, were traded, there appears to be another top-tier starting pitcher on the market: Padres' Jake Peavy, the 2007 National League Cy Young winner.
Overpaying for starting pitchers has become the norm in recent years, whether it's through a trade or free agent contract. With C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Ben Sheets all looking to line up big contracts in the free agent market, teams looking for an ace without the cash to pay for a front-line starter will look to San Diego and Peavy.
However, whichever team trades for Peavy might end up overpaying worse than the team that signs Sabathia - not in cash, but in prospects. General manager Kevin Towers has said he wants pitching in return for Peavy, and that likely means a major league-ready pitcher along with a blue-chip prospect who might be a year or two in the offing.
Peavy might not be worth the high price. Yes, his 2008 numbers were very good. He had a 2.85 ERA, 8.60 K/9 and 1.18 WHIP, to name a few. But you have to be concerned with his home/road splits. Petco Park in San Diego is one of, if not the, best pitcher's park in baseball. And pitching nearly half his games there has certainly helped him over his career. Now, that's not saying Peavy is only successful because of his home park - he's a very good pitcher regardless. But his ERA away from home in 2008 was more than 4. His home run per nine innings on the road was below the league average, and his road WHIP hovered around the MLB average. Even his statistics for walks and strikeouts per nine innings, which shouldn't be affected by venue, were also around the MLB average on the road.
Granted, playing for a really bad San Diego team might have had something to do with Peavy's road struggles. Finding a way to get motivated can be a problem for even the best of pitchers when they aren't in a pennant race, so maybe what Peavy needs is a return to competitive baseball. However, for a team like the Atlanta Braves, who are currently rumored to be the frontrunners for Peavy, trading away your best prospects might not be the best idea at this point. Even with an ace like Peavy heading their rotation, the Braves would struggle to compete with the stacked Phillies and Mets in the NL East next year.
If the Braves are to get Peavy, it could mean trading away Jair Jurrjens, who had one of the best seasons of any rookie-starting pitcher in 2008, and Tommy Hanson, Atlanta's top pitching prospect. Both Jurrjens and Hanson could develop into excellent pitchers down the road. And while the Braves would know pretty much what they're getting with Peavy, they could be dealing away two effective pitchers who could help with rotation depth when the team is ready to contend.
It's always dangerous to trade away the farm for any player, even Jake Peavy. The Padres aren't desperate to move him, so they'll be looking for a king's ransom in return. And teams should be wary about picking him up.
