Religion's influence on the 2008 vote uncertain

Issues like the economy and the war in Iraq have surpassed morality issues.

By Sam Butterfield
Oct. 6, 2008

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Although America is of the world's most religious modern democracies, a majority of its residents say religion should stay out of politics, according to an August poll from the Pew Research Center.

The poll shows a dramatic shift in the attitudes of conservatives, as four years ago 70 percent of conservatives said faith should be involved in politics while 50 percent now say religion and politics should be separate entities.

According to previous studies conducted by Pew, the rate of American respondents that considered themselves "very religious" was almost double that of Canadian respondents, and even more than double that of respondents from Western Europe and Japan.

Further, 40 percent of those surveyed said the Democratic Party is receptive towards faith, where just 26 percent said Democrats were concerned with faith in 2006.

These findings show a clear trend in religious voters' tolerance of more liberal views. According to an August poll from the Barna Group, a Southern California based Christian research and consulting firm, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., leads Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 18 of 19 different religious denominations. The only group where Obama trailed McCain was among evangelicals, who favor McCain by a 61 to 17 percent margin.

However, Barna defines evangelicals only as those who believe the Bible to be literally accurate, among other specifications, meaning those identified as evangelical account for only 8 percent of the U.S. electorate, which is less than the 40 percent of voters who identified themselves as evangelical according to exit polling in 2004.

Experts generally agree that voters are disenchanted with the performance of the Bush administration, partially accounting for the shift in opinion.

MU psychology professor Kennon Sheldon said he has found that economic conservatives have not addressed social conservatives' desire for more moralistic policy, perhaps disaffecting that group.

In a news release, Sheldon said data he has collected "suggest that economic conservatives have been 'drafting' on the values of religious conservatives, using conservative Christian willingness to care for less fortunate others as a cover for their own willingness to exploit the situation."

Faith has already injected itself into this year's campaign frenzy, including the tirades of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who was removed from Obama's African American Religious Leadership Committee in March for controversial sermons he delivered, the now infamous YouTube video showing vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin declaring the war in Iraq to be "God's will" to McCain and Obama meeting at evangelist leader Rick Warren's California megachurch in August for a candidate forum.

Faith, to some degree, will influence this year's election, though no one can gauge exactly how.

"I don't think it's going to have that big of an effect," Sheldon said. "I see religion as a part of social conservative value issues which I think play a big role when there aren't bigger problems afoot."

Issues like the economy and the war in Iraq seem to have surpassed morality issues like abortion and gay marriage, which were divisive topics in the last two national elections.

Further contributing to uncertainty about what faith means in this election is the candidates' stances on religion themselves.

Democrats have made gains in how the public views their ability to relate to religion, Obama has emphasized his faith and explained his belief in acting for social justice and the greater good as part of a Christian theology.

McCain, the nominee for the party that has tended to attract religious voters, has come under criticism in the past from socially conservative figures, including American Conservative Union Chairman David Keene, author Ann Coulter and radio personality Rush Limbaugh.

The Rev. Thomas Blantz, a history professor at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on the history of Catholicism in American politics, said he is unsure how Catholics, the largest single Christian denomination in the world, on the whole will vote, as Catholics have not adhered to any uniform voting pattern since the Vatican II Council caused a rift between more conservative Catholics and more progressive Catholics.

Blantz said that some Catholics see Obama's anti-poverty, pro-universal healthcare stance as ultimately more beneficial than an anti-abortion platform in that abortions tend to decline under better economic conditions.

He said, however, that a large faction of hard-line Catholic voters will likely vote Republican on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage in step with Church doctrine.

Blantz said he believes "regular issues like the economy certainly at the moment and the Iraq war," will be decisive points for religious voters, but noted that those issues pertain to all voters, furthering the point that many who had been concerned with social values are less concerned with religion in this election.

Columbia residents have divergent views on religion in the 2008 election.

The Rev. Michael Will said politics are not a factor in the Wesley United Methodist Campus Ministry's services.

"I think that our group is so diverse that there isn't going to be one determining factor and I don't think the group is going to vote one way," Will said, adding that the Wesley Center encourages its congregation to be politically involved and active but that it does not endorse or emphasize any platform.

J.R. Madill, an associate campus minister with the Mizzou Baptist Student Union, said he believes his group will in large hold social values over all other issues.

"I think a lot of our group will probably vote Republican mainly because we have a lot of students who come from a pretty conservative background both politically and theologically," he said. "I think for our group I could see a lot of our students making a big deal out of abortion and abortion rights, right to life issues, though I think a growing number of our students are really concerned about social justice."

Although Madill said he believes most of his group will vote Republican on social values, he said "we have a fair contingent of students who are becoming disillusioned with the government's ability to interact with those issues and to legislate them."

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Religion's influence on the 2008 vote uncertain

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