Column:

Swisher's stats can only rise

By JJ Stankevitz

Published Nov. 10, 2008

When asked at the general managers' meetings in November whether Nick Swisher would be the White Sox's starting centerfielder, Kenny Williams flatly stated "no." With Carlos Quentin entrenched in left field and Jermaine Dye likely staying in right, Williams' comment all but signaled the end of Swisher on the South Side.

President-elect Barack Obama is a huge White Sox fan - so, for the good of the franchise, maybe he can use his new power to issue a ban on trading anybody with the last name of "Swisher" away from Chicago. Swisher had an awful year in 2008, hitting .219 with a career low .743 OPS, the on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Always known as a high on-base player, Swisher's on-base percentage was just .332 last year. He hit 24 home runs, but drove in a career-low 69 runs and had just 109 hits, tied for the lowest of his career with his 2005 rookie season.

Outside of a few isolated stretches where Swisher hit the ball well, he was detrimental to the White Sox offense in 2008. So why should the White Sox avoid trading him and possibly improving at center field in 2009?

First of all, Swisher's value will never be lower. Every general manager that enters trade talks involving Swisher knows that they have all the leverage in a trade. The White Sox traded away three excellent prospects last winter to get Swisher. But, if they trade him this offseason, they might be lucky to get a back-of-the-rotation starter or a pair of mid-level prospects.

Second, Swisher will make just $5.3 million in 2009. Now, that number will escalate to $6.75 million in 2010, $9 million in 2011 and $10.25 million in 2012, but whoever trades for Swisher would have him under their control for four relatively cheap years.

Finally, Swisher almost certainly will return to his career norms over the next four years. He's not going to hit 35 home runs again, like he did in 2006, but he's still going to be valuable for an on-base average above .360 and 25 or more home runs a year. The severe drop in OBP in 2008 was largely because of a significant decline in Swisher's BABIP (a statistic that measure's a player's batting average when he puts the ball in play, which eliminates home runs and strikeouts from the equation). His career average is a .279 BABIP, which was far higher before the .251 BABIP in 2008 was added to the average.

That statistic should return to around .280 over the next few years, as Swisher's line drive rate should sit around 20 percent again in 2009. His BABIP has usually been about 0.08 points higher than his line drive rate but, in 2008, the difference was just 0.042. If those return to normal, so will Swisher's stats.

That's why the White Sox shouldn't give up on Swisher. But, if they do, the team that gets him could be in for a big offensive boost in 2009.