Turnout rises, fails to meet expectations
Recent counts show that 124 million voters went to the polls.
Published Nov. 13, 2008
Last Tuesday's election was a watershed moment in American history but, despite high enthusiasm from voters, statistics reveal a less dramatic change from past elections.
George Mason University International Affairs professor Michael McDonald projected a turnout rate of 61.2 percent, or about 130 million voters and a 1.1 percent increase from 2004. But just 124 million voters went to the polls, according to the most recent counts.
McDonald, however, is sticking to his projection.
"We did not beat the high mark of 63.8 percent from 1960," he said. "We would have needed 136 million votes to break that mark, and right now it's around 130 million. It may get a little higher than that as provisional ballots come in and states certify their results, so it may reach 61.3 percent."
McDonald said many turnout declines occurred in "deep red" states, such as Utah and Alaska.
"It looks as though at the last minute when it looked as though (President-elect Barack) Obama was going to win the election, Republicans who weren't enthused with John McCain saw that as a sign to stay home," he said.
One group that met turnout projections were young voters.
According to student voter polls conducted by CBS News, UWire and The Chronicle of Higher Education, Obama won the youth vote in 41 out of 50 states, a huge stride, as John Kerry carried the youth vote in just 29 states in 2004. Of the nine states that went from Republican last election to Democratic, Obama won the youth vote in eight, as he increased the Democratic share of the 18-29 demographic in 44 states.
Obama did well in college communities that went red in 2004. He took college towns in Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia that went Republican in 2000 and 2004.
According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, the youth turnout rate was at least 52 percent, as 23 million people under the age of 30 voted Tuesday. This is an increase of 3.4 million voters, or 5 percent from 2004. This bloc accounted for 18 percent of voters. Compared to 2000, youth voting was up 11 percent in 2008.
"We saw 3.4 million more young people vote in 2008 than in 2004 and if you actually look at the numbers, young people account for at least 60 percent in the overall increase in the number of voters in the U.S. election," said Abby Kiesa, youth coordinator and researcher at CIRCLE. "Campaigns actually reached out to young people this election season. That's quite a significant difference from other years."
Obama made inroads across the electoral map, though some were less dramatic than predicted. In a CBS News poll of 30 randomly selected counties across the country, Obama drew a larger percentage in 27 counties than Kerry in 2004. Voter totals were higher in 24 of the 30 counties, and Obama won 13 of the 18 counties George Bush won in 2004.
Despite the bevy of commentary about the election, the results from this election have not been entirely settled. In Missouri, the vote has not been finalized and is narrowing. John McCain's lead has shrunk to fewer than 5,000 votes since Tuesday.
Missouri is the only state whose results are still in question, and the sorting out process might linger for a few more weeks.
Laura Egerdal, spokeswoman for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, said local election officials have until next Tuesday to certify their results, and the Secretary of State will certify their results by Dec. 9.