High youth participation could make records

The number of young voters increased from 2004 and possibly set records.

By Mary Daly

Published Nov. 8, 2008

Not only did Tuesday's presidential election shatter barriers for African Americans, but it also broke standards for young voters.

Young people, ages 18 to 29, voted close to a record setting rate, said Peter Levine, director of the Center for Information and Research on Civil Learning and Engagement.

Youth voters represent about 21 percent of the voting-eligible population, according to CIRCLE. Youth voter turnout is the percentage of eligible 18- to 29 year-olds who cast a ballot.

The 2008 election is the third major election in a row with increased young voter turnout.

"There's definitely been a new generation of young Democrats created in this decade and they have proven they're decisive Democratic voters," said Nate Kennedy, Young Democrats of Missouri College Federation chairman.

Preliminary projections by CIRCLE show about 21.6 million to 23.9 million young Americans voted Tuesday, increasing turnout by at least 2.2 million from the 2004 election. CIRCLE cannot release actual vote counts until all precincts, including absentee ballots have been reported.

In 2004, 48 percent of eligible youth voted, a 7-percentage point increase from 2000. On Nov. 5 CIRCLE released projections for the 2008 election, showing youth voter turnout between 49.3 and 54.5 percent.

"It would take us to the second-highest turnout since 1972," Levine said. "That was when the voting age was lowered. It is possible we might even meet that record this year."

Youth also preferred President-elect Barack Obama to Sen. John McCain 66 percent to 32 percent, according to CIRCLE. This was the highest share of the youth vote obtained by any candidate since exit polls began reporting results by age categories in 1976.

"There is a very interesting story here that young people voted 2 to 1 for the winner," Levine said. "Obama did the best of any presidential candidate of either party of reaching young people. I think his win in the election could be attributed to the 18 to 29 demographic."

Levine said if some of the youth turnout was subtracted from the election results or if the voting age was raised, it would have been a lot closer of a race or Obama would have lost.

MU political science professor John Petrocik said young people became significantly more active in this election, but there is no reason to say the youth vote determined the outcome.

He also said young voters have been inclined to vote Democratic for more than a decade, possibly in part due to President George Bush.

"It is more party preference and a rejection of Bush than a purely Obama draw," Petrocik said.

From 1976 to 2004, youth voters diverged in terms of their candidate preference by an average of 1.8 percent from the whole popular vote, according to CIRCLE. In 2008, the gap between young people and the entire voting population was 14 percent.

"The jump is so large because Obama did such a good job courting young people," Levine said. "I think it is an open question as to whether Obama will try to and succeed in transferring his youth support to youth support for the Democratic Party."

Heather Smith, executive director of Rock the Vote, a non-partisan, non-profit organization, said the young people who helped elect Obama will be the ones to make sure he has the support he needs to make real changes.

"Young voters have dispelled the notion of an apathetic generation and proved the pundits, reporters and political parties wrong by voting in record numbers," Smith said in a news release. "The millennial generation is making their mark on politics and shaping our future."

Kennedy also said a lot of "apathy was quelled" in this election and the young generation should be viewed as an important voting demographic.

"As long as we continue to vote in these numbers, we'll be taken seriously," he said. "We obviously just decided an election so they better pay attention to us."