Obama keeps lead
Published Feb. 22, 2008
To say that Barack Obama is on a winning streak would be an understatement. The junior senator from Illinois has won 11 primary contests in a row, most recently the Democrats Abroad global primary. In the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucuses, he beat Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., by a wide margin. Not only did Obama win big, but he also cut into Clinton’s core constituency of white women, losing to her by only three points in that category (as opposed to 13 points in Maryland). To cap it off, Obama picked up three major union endorsements this week: the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, Service Employees International Union, and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers. Labor was thought to be another core Clinton constituency.
So, what next for Hillary Clinton? Her campaign shows signs of disarray, and the media continues its negative focus on her. Simply put, Hillary has to win both Ohio and Texas, and by big margins. Texas’ odd apportionment of delegates is a problem for Hillary. The system awards delegates to each state house district based on turnout in the previous election. Because Hispanic areas had lower turnout than predominantly white or African-American districts, this will adversely affect Hillary, who relies upon the Hispanic vote in southwestern states.
One thing should be made clear: This is far from over, at least mathematically. Because the Democratic nominee needs 2,025 to secure the nomination, the March 4 primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island are extremely important. Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary could also play a major role if Clinton manages to win in the Buckeye and Lone Star States.
That said, it is a much easier road for Barack Obama, though he must be wary of heightened expectations. All he really has to do to keep his momentum (which is really just how much positive press coverage a candidate is getting) going into the two big states on March 4. Ideally, Obama wants to win both, but he really only has to win one of the large states and keep Clinton in check in the other. This wouldn’t immediately wrap up the nomination for him, but it would put a great deal of pressure on Clinton to drop out. Polls point to significant gains for Obama on Clinton’s lead in both states, and Obama is outspending Hillary in both states.
As far as Rhode Island and Vermont go, there’s been no reliable polling conducted within the past year, though it would seem that both states could break either way. Rhode Island is a very small, liberal, New England state with both a large working class and a large student population. Vermont’s population includes rural, native New Englanders (a core Hillary constituency), but also has lots of transplanted New York liberals who could break either way. Based on the results of small-state primaries on Feb. 5 — and the Clinton campaign’s relative lack of money, focus upon the two larger states and their tendency to ignore organizing in favor of a three-day media blitz — I predict the two small states will break to Obama, though it will be close.
The Democratic nomination might be decided on March 4, but only if Obama sweeps both Ohio and Texas. Until then, Obama should try to lower expectations in both states, because if Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, the narrative of this campaign will dramatically shift, hearkening back to the 1992 Democratic nomination, and that “comeback kid,” former President Bill Clinton.