Column: Remember fall’s other elections
Published March 14, 2008
There are other elections this fall. Yes, I know that statement is surprising, and I know it was met with a collective gasp. It is indeed hard to believe we’re electing more than a president in November, given all the attention paid to the issue by the news media. There are a number of hotly contested Senate elections, mostly held by Republican incumbents. Here’s a run-down of the seats to watch (in no particular order):
Minnesota Senate: Freshman Republican Sen. Norm Coleman faces a tough challenge from political commentator and native Minnesotan Al Franken of Democratic-Farmer-Labor, the Minnesota arm of the Democratic Party. Franken’s main primary challenger just dropped out, leaving his path to the Democratic nomination open. Race Rating: Lean Republican to Toss-Up
New Mexico Senate: Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., will challenge either Rep. Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce. Udall is a grassroots-powered candidate who is outpolling Wilson 50-42 percent and Pearce 50-43 percent. Udall also outpolls both Republicans when the numbers are broken down by demographics. When you put in the massive fundraising advantage of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to their Republican counterparts it’s looking good for Udall. Race Rating: Lean Democratic
Colorado Senate: Tom’s cousin, Rep. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is running for Republican Sen. Wayne Allard’s open seat against former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. Colorado itself is a toss-up state, with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., but trailing Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in early polling. This race will probably come down to fundraising and get-out-the-vote machines. Race Rating: Toss-Up
New Hampshire Senate: Incumbent Sen. John Sununu, a Republican, is in big trouble. His favorable and unfavorable ratings are tied at 47 percent. His challenger, Jeanne Shaheen, is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters while only 41 percent of citizens disapprove. Overall, polling has Shaheen up 49 to 41 percent, which is a very good advantage for a challenger over an incumbent. While McCain and Clinton are essentially tied, Obama wins by a large margin over McCain. All in all, the state’s trend is Democratic, and that spells bad news for President George Bush’s pal Sununu. Race Rating: Lean Democratic
Maine Senate: Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is still more popular than Bush in the state (not that that takes much these days), and holds a lead over her likely opponent, Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine. But Maine is a more working-class state than many others, reliant mainly upon logging and tourism. Bush’s policies are quite unpopular there, and given Collins’ support for Bush’s economic agenda (to an extent) and Iraq, she’s going to take a hit once this race really ratchets up. The race is already starting to get a little nasty, with Collins making somewhat desperate attacks against Allen. This race is going to get much closer, and based on the national mood, it could become a toss-up. Race Rating: Lean GOP to Toss-Up
These are not all the important Senate races by any means, and there are a lot more potentially close races or seat changes to be explored.