Column: Clinton can't win
April 25, 2008
Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., won the Pennsylvania primary, defeating Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., by 9.4 percentage points. Clinton’s victory made a small dent in Obama’s lead in pledged delegates, but it really doesn’t matter, because she can’t win. At this point, a Clinton victory would be nothing short of miraculous, akin to MU basketball being good, or to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., not voting the party line.
I’m predicting this loss for Clinton not out of spite or with any malicious intent. On the contrary, I like her (sometimes). But the math doesn’t add up. If Clinton were to split the remaining super-delegates 50/50 with Obama (which isn’t likely to happen, given recent trends), and wins every remaining primary by 20 percent, Obama would eliminate her on the day of the last primary. Go back and read that. Even with wildly optimistic expectations (now who’s naïve, Hill?), Clinton still loses. There is no possible way for Clinton to beat Obama by 20 percent in either Indiana or North Carolina, unless Obama comes out and tells the nation he is switching parties.
I really can’t make sense of why Clinton is still in the race. Is it because she cares so much about the issues on which she has campaigned? Maybe, but if that was the only thing, she would’ve brokered a deal by now, gracefully bowing out on the condition that Obama incorporates some of the more important parts of her platform into his. I think that it’s more of a question of a sense of entitlement. As bad as that sounds, I don’t mean it in a pejorative sense — I’m simply trying to point out that Clinton has been working toward this all her life. On top of the presidency being her personal goal, I think she honestly feels she is more qualified for the job. In one sense, she is still in the race because she cares so much about the country that she won’t trust anyone else (except Bill) to do the job.
That being said, I repeat my call for her to drop out, in large part because she can’t win, and also for the good of the Democratic Party. Now let’s make one thing clear: I do not believe the extended primary is doing deep and long-lasting damage to the party or to either of the candidates. Democratic registration and turnout has been at record highs in every state the primary has gone to. Counties that had majority Republican voter registration prior to the primary now have majority Democratic registration. Both candidates are smashing fundraising records, and the fundraising of the presumptive Republican nominee, John McSame. The long primary has forced Obama to focus on Clinton and has prevented him from turning his attention to McSame and showing the Arizona senator’s record to the American people. It has also delayed (not prevented, but delayed) Obama’s fundraising efforts for the general election and the record fundraising month that is sure to follow when he wins the nomination.
Hillary, it’s been a nice run, but the time’s come for you to face reality and hang it up. We’ll miss you, but if you play your cards right, you can still be a major force in American politics (Senate Majority Leader?). Stay in until you raise enough money to pay your debts, and then gracefully bow out. No one will blame you — hell, they’ll thank you because it’ll make Chris Matthews shut the hell up, and that’s a victory in anybody’s book.
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