Guest Column: Bow out? Encore, Hillary!
April 29, 2008
In last Friday’s edition of The Maneater, Asim Thakore called for Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., to bow out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Now, I respect and enjoy Asim’s weekly columns, but I’m going to have to disagree with him on this one.
Hillary Clinton has sound reasons to stay in this race. Asim used math to support his call his for Clinton to drop out. I’m going to use math to support Clinton staying in the race. If the rest of the state primaries go 50/50, which is a very realistic average, neither Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., nor Clinton will have the magic 2,025 to clinch the nomination. Which means the superdelegates will decide this race. To stalemate and send this race to the convention, Clinton has to get 69 percent of the remaining superdelegates. To win the nomination, Clinton has to get 76 percent of the remaining superdelegates. These aren’t the greatest statistics, but other politicians have overcome far greater odds.
The thing about superdelegates is that, if they haven’t picked a side yet, then they can be easily manipulated. The remaining super-delegates will vote en masse and will vote for whoever has the momentum and the best chance in November. Hillary Clinton just has to convince these superdelegates that she has the momentum and is the better choice for the general election. With Obama’s recent Reverend Wright scandal and “bitter” comments, Clinton might very well be able to convince the superdelegates that a vote for Obama is a gamble in the general election. Clinton has history to show that she can withstand and go on the offensive with Republican attacks. Also, with recent victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, she can say she has gained momentum.
This primary race is a lot like the MU-KU football game last November. KU (Clinton) was ahead in the polls before the game. But with an easy schedule, KU’s success was way over-hyped. MU (Obama) dominated the first half of the game and they appeared like they were going to be the clear winners. But, in the second half they slipped, and allowed KU to catch up. This enabled KU to have a fighting chance to win the game. You see, we wouldn’t call the game for MU in the third quarter just because they were winning, especially when KU was only one touchdown away. Same with this primary race, we can’t proclaim Obama the nominee until he has obtained 2,025 delegates. However, I honestly believe that this contest will end the same way that game did but the race is not over until it’s over.
There is no reason for Clinton to drop out of the race now. She has invested millions of dollars in this primary and has been campaigning for more than a year. It is ridiculous for her throw that all away when she still has a fighting chance.
Regardless of how long this contest has been, this healthy exercise of democracy has only been good for the Democratic Party. It has given the Democrats thousands of hours of more free media than the Republicans and has registered millions of new democratic voters. This year has been about the Democrats, and it is thanks to the contested race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Trevor Turner, Mizzou Democrats Membership Director
Trevor.J.Turner@mizzou.edu
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