Questions over condition of North Korea's Kim Jong-Il has MU professor worried

By Gretchen Mahan

Published Sept. 16, 2008

For more than half a century, China and North Korea have maintained strong relations, and with reports of North Korea's leader becoming ill, an MU researcher said the two countries' interactions might be in for a major change.

Questions about North Korea's leadership rose last week after President Kim Jong-Il did not appear in the parade celebrating North Korea's 60th anniversary.

Although nothing has been established yet, the outcome of the situation will be imperative to North Korea, MU professor of Korean education Seungkwon You said.

You said he believes military leadership will take over after Kim, leading to closer North Korean-Chinese ties.

"If he is totally not able to influence his power, I think it is more likely that the military will step in," You said. "I think the North Korean-Chinese relations will be strengthened."

There is a long history between the two countries, filled with decades of negotiations and pacts.

"The Chinese-North Korea relationship is historically complicated," said Herbert Tillema, a retired MU political science professor.

When the Korean War began in 1950, North Korea and China became close allies. During the war, China continually supported its neighbor to the north by supplying military reinforcements. Years later, China became North Korea's main arms dealer.

From 1995 to 1997, when North Korea experienced severe famines, China provided a large amount of aid in emergency food. Although China did not keep an accurate record of their contribution, a 2003 Congressional Research Service report stated that China's aid was thought to exceed that of the United States. The U.S. pledged $52 million in food aid.

In 2003, the ordeal with North Korea's nuclear program became an international issue. However, with China's influence, the United States was able to negotiate Three-Party Talks with North Korea. This eventually led to the Six-Party Talks, in which North Korea agreed to end its nuclear program on certain conditions. However, North Korea has since been in the headlines for continuing to pursue its nuclear intentions.

According to the U.S. State Department, China is North Korea's No. 1 trading partner. Additionally, China has invested in 70 percent of North Korea's economic resources, You said.

Despite all of these connections, Kim has kept North Korea fairly independent of China in the way the country is run.

"North Korea basically make decisions based on their own interests," You said. "They always try to be independent in everything."

The U.S. continues to hope that China will act as a good influence on the way North Korea handles its international affairs.

"I am hopeful that China will continue to play a constructive role with respect to North Korea as they have in the Six-Party talks," said Sen. Kit Bond, R-Mo., who is vice chairman of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. "If China is to be a key leader on the world stage, then it must act as such by continuing to apply pressure on rogue regimes like North Korea."

Whatever happens between North Korea and China will most likely impact the United States, but economic interaction may be the key to the U.S. and China continuing to work well together on important issues, he said.

"When countries engage each other on an economic front, it decreases the likelihood they will engage on a military front," Bond said.

This method is not limited to the national level.

"We in Missouri are exploring mutually beneficial trade relations that will lead to more jobs in Missouri and better strategic relations between the U.S. and China," Bond said.

As of now, the future of North Korea remains unclear.

"The world as a whole is watching this rather closely because of high uncertainty factors," Tillema said. "There is apparently no obvious successor."