Hurricanes at eye of climate change debate

By Scott Kanowsky

Published Sept. 9, 2008

Severe storms ravage southern coastal regions of the U.S. nearly every year, causing thousands of dollars in damages and many to lose their homes.

And with the recent strength of Hurricanes Gustav, whose remnants hit Missouri last week, and Hannah, which hit the east coast this week, scientists are debating whether or not climate changes due to global warming are the culprits.

Currently, the South faces Category 4 Hurricane Ike, which is projected to make landfall between Texas and Alabama on Sept. 13. Meteorologists predict that Ike will soon be followed by Hurricane Josephine and the hurricane season might last until November.

A report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association stated that the harsh weather will continue and, in direct opposition to other findings, is caused by climate changes.

"That's the view of the scientist that contributed to the report," MU atmospheric science professor Anthony Lupo said. "The activity is a little bit more active than normal. Gustav was a pretty strong storm, but Hannah was a relative weakling."

Much of this ongoing disagreement lies between those who believe severe storms are man-made and those who think they are natural occurrences.

The warming of ocean water causes an increase in evaporation, which leads to cloudiness and condensation. The strength of a storm comes from the release of moisture.

Lupo, a member of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change team that shared Al Gore's Nobel Prize, did hypothesize, through a comparison of the intense weather from 1940-1970 and the relatively quiet period from about 1970-2000, that the storms are simply part of a natural cycle.

"Nature is primarily responsible, but that doesn't mean that the human component is not responsible," Lupo said.

He also pointed out that climate change would affect "the Arctic regions more than tropical areas."

Lupo said he believes media attention since the disastrous Hurricane Katrina in 2004 has brought upon much of the current interest in hurricanes and other severe weather systems. Many MU students who have lived in regions affected by tropical storms shared his opinions.

"They sensationalize it a lot," said MU freshman Anna Small, who is a native of Florida.

Another Floridian, MU freshman Austin Lohmann, spoke about an incident in central Florida where a school was let out due to hurricane warnings but the system merely passed over the area as a tropical storm.

Both agreed that hurricanes have not been stronger, just more frequent. But that does not rule out the possible role of global warming in storm activity.

"With today's knowledge of science, you'd be stupid to think they aren't related," Small said.

Such sentiments are common among most Americans, according to a survey conducted by David Konisky of MU's School of Public Policy.

Konisky found in a study of voters' concerns that many are more worried about pollution on a local and national level, but they do not think climate change is as immediate a threat.

"(The) disagreement is about how urgent the problem is," Konisky said.

Lupo said hurricanes will increase in frequency.

"We figure that probably into the 2020's you'll see more (hurricane) seasons," he said.