Youth vote energizes campaigns but turnout unknown
Published Sept. 9, 2008
NYU -- DENVER — In the Chinese zodiac, this is the year of the rat, a sign of impending trouble. In American politics, this could be called the year of the youth, a sign of a generation rising.
As Barack Obama and John McCain battle for the White House, each having received strong support from youths in the primaries, their advisers are left wondering: Is this sudden upswing in youth involvement a sea change in how elections work in America or a sign of trouble to come should that support evaporate on election day?
This is a story that’s been told before — the “youth vote” as a fickle group of largely untested and untrustworthy teenagers and twenty-somethings, a demographic that may be passionate but won’t show up at the polls. But in the current election cycle, this mentality, maintained for years by pragmatic politicians, shows signs of crumbling. Both campaigns are making overtures to young voters in ways never done before, and those voters in turn are finding new ways to engage in the political process and shape it to their liking.
Through dozens of interviews with students, politicians and academics, the same refrain continues to be raised: Young people are listening and getting involved in unprecedented numbers.
But the reality appears more complicated, and the youth are proving to be a difficult group to pin down.
The millennial generation
Young Democrats of America, the youth arm of the Democratic National Party, defines the youth vote from 18-to 35-years-old. Others use a broader term: the “millennial” generation, or those born between 1980 and 1994.
Many of these millennials were in Denver for the Democratic National Convention last week, often skipping class or pre-semester events to get there.
Arthur Leopold picked the convention over freshman orientation. But, for him, that was a small sacrifice. The 20-year-old delegate from New York also deferred his college education for two years to work for the Obama campaign. Standing on the floor of the convention after watching Obama’s acceptance speech, Leopold said it was worth it.
University of Utah senior Mark Streeter, on the other hand, came to cause trouble. A John McCain supporter, he skipped his first week of school to go to Denver to protest. He and eight other student supporters of McCain traveled throughout the city with “McCain for President” signs, being heckled by passing Democrats.
“We’ve got to make things interesting for the Democrats,” Streeter said, as he protested a press conference held by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Energized and determined
Republicans and Democrats alike both note that this year has seen an unprecedented level of involvement from young voters.
“I think either way you slice it, this is such an important election for our country. There are people from age 15 to 25 to 80 getting involved, and they all want to make sure their choice is elected president,” said Lynn Krogh, president of the New York Young Republican Club, the largest and oldest young Republican group in the country.
Charlton McIlwain is a professor of mass communication at Steinhardt School of Education, Culture and Human Development, focusing on race and politics. He was in Denver last week in part to research the level of involvement with the campaigns. To him, the youth participation represents the rising of a new generation — and, he says, it’s largely thanks to Obama.
“Previous elections, you’ve seen young people support candidates, but you haven’t seen the level of support and the level of real engagement that you have in this election,” McIlwain said. “It’s very clear where the loyalty and where the excitement — where the buzz is, and it’s certainly here with Obama and his campaign.”
Democrats say that’s part politics and part successful campaigning.
“The youth are sick of the politics of the Bush administration. They’re sick of seeing financial aid cuts, and they’re sick of seeing their peers killed in Iraq,” said Jason Rae, who at 21 is the party’s youngest superdelegate. A senior at Marquette University in Wisconsin, Rae said the youth have realized they want to see a change in the policies, and Obama is their best option.
McIlwain said a lot of the momentum comes from Obama’s open campaign structure.
“The way political candidates have treated young people a lot of times in previous campaigns is, ‘We’ll take the tiny bit of money you have, we’ll take your free labor, but ultimately, we know you won’t show up to vote on Election Day. We’ve been through this before,’” he said. “I think a lot of young people see a different kind of campaign with Obama where there’s a little bit more openness and access, and I think they see that as a sign of him being different.”
The level of youth support for Obama has drawn criticism and ire from the Republicans. They have painted the movement largely as the result Obama’s celebrity status, more rock star than experienced politician.
“He’s a celebrity,” Peter Feldman, McCain’s regional communications director said. “There’s a lot of hype on the Obama side, and a lot of these numbers you see are what you’d expect from a celebrity.”
But Steinhardt senior Sara Haile-Mariam, who was in Denver last week as a guest of the New York delegation, said the rock-star attack misses the mark.
“I can watch celebrities on TV,” she said. “I’m not going to go out and plan fundraisers and make YouTube videos for them.”
A challenge for conservatives
While the youth momentum is most often portrayed as behind Obama’s campaign, conservatives are quick to point out that McCain has a strong youth following as well.
Feldman, the McCain communications director, said not only are young professionals and college students getting involved with the campaign, but high school students are as well.
“Every day in our office, I’m seeing new faces of volunteers that are putting in long, hard hours to help get John McCain elected,” Feldman said. “These are the volunteers that are shouldering the hard work that you need to do in a campaign. These are the folks that have the energy that you need to get out and knock on doors and get out the voters.”
Krogh, the New York Young Republicans president, said the media has been blowing Obama’s sway over the youth out of proportion.
“There are certainly reports in the news [about] how Obama is getting young people excited, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening for McCain as well,” she said. “Even in the bluest of blue states, we’ve been very active and participating heavily.”
From the convention hall in St. Paul, Minn., Republican delegate Saul Farber, who at 22 is campaigning to become the youngest member of the State Assembly in New York, said while he recognizes Obama’s appeal, he looks deeper at candidates before making decisions.
“On the façade, Obama is a very attractive candidate, and I see that,” said Farber, who graduated last spring from NYU. “A lot of young people like Obama’s tone, he is a very enthusiastic politician, but for me I read more into it, and I look at the issues.”
The Republicans, all three noted, are not worried.
Getting out the vote
Despite the hype around young voters, the big question still is whether young people will head to the polls on Nov. 4, something they have consistently failed to do in previous elections. But neither the Republicans nor the Democrats expressed outright reservations about the youth vote this year.
Ultimately, Republican and Democratic officials say, the deciding factor will be the campaigns’ get-out-the-vote efforts, which both sides are heavily relying on young people for.
In New York, College Democrats from across the state will be traveling to Pennsylvania, a swing state important to Obama’s success, to get young people to the voting booth.
The Republicans have a similar ground plan in place and will be organizing on campuses in the last weeks of the election.
Rae, the youngest Democratic superdelegate, thinks the youth will show. But, just in case, he’s also reduced his courseload at Marquette this semester.
“I’ll be knocking on doors, making phone calls and telling everyone I know to get out to vote,” he said.