Carnahan declares 2010 run for Bond's vacant Senate seat

She has no formidable opposition from either party yet.

By Greg Young

Published Feb. 5, 2009

On Wednesday, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan announced via YouTube that she will run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Kit Bond in 2010.

Carnahan, who is not expected to face any major challenger in the Democratic primary, has been the Secretary of State since 2004. In 2008, she won 61 percent of the vote against her Republican challenger, Mitch Hubbard.

The Carnahan name is well known in Missouri, as Carnahan's father, Mel Carnahan, was a former governor. Additionally, her brother, Russ Carnahan, is the U.S. congressman from the state's 3rd Congressional district.

"She's well known around the state, and her family is well known around the state," MU political science professor William Horner said.

Missouri State University political science professor George Connor said Carnahan announced early for two main reasons, fundraising and an attempt to discourage other Democratic candidates away from running for the seat.

When Carnahan announced her candidacy, it was 19 months, four weeks and a day before the general election in 2010.

"It has been said that you are going to raise upwards of $15-30 million to successfully run a Senate campaign, and you've got to start now," Connor said. "You also announce early to clear the field."

Meanwhile, the Republican field is less clear. No fewer than three candidates are being mentioned as possible candidates for the seat, including former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt and former U.S. Sen. Jim Talent.

The Republicans will try to avoid a contentious primary, which analysts said hurt their chances in the gubernatorial race in 2008, when former U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof narrowly defeated Steelman, but went on to lose by more than 15 percent of the vote to then-Attorney General Jay Nixon in the general election.

A divisive GOP primary also helped Democrat Mel Carnahan's bid for governor in 1992 in his win over William Webster. In the Republican primary, Webster narrowly beat Blunt and former Rep. Wendell Bailey.

"There is always a financial reason to not have a primary, as well as not running the risk of having feelings hurt within a political party," said Mike Zweifel, Central Missouri Young Republicans spokesmen.

Connor said that though the GOP might not want a divisive primary, they might be faced with one because of the rarity of open seat Senate races.

"They have incentive to avoid a divisive primary," Connor said. "But Senate seats don't come up all that often, and once you get the Senate seat, its yours."

Of the three candidates generating buzz, Young Democrats of Missouri President Rick Puig said he expects Carnahan to face Blunt in a general election, and said he feels good about the Democrat's chances to pick up the seat regardless of who they face.

"I don't much care who the Republicans put up," Puig said. "We are right on the issues and will work harder. That is what counts."

Connor said Blunt would go into any primary race as the favorite, partially because of his reputation as a top Republican fundraiser. However, Connor said that Blunt could be attacked as a "Washington insider," considering he has been a congressman for 12 years.

"My guess is that he's probably raised more money for more Republican candidates than anyone else in the United States," Connor said.