Baker discusses politics of 9th District

Baker lost her bid for the district's congressional seat.

By Greg Young

Published March 7, 2009

At the meeting of the Missouri Federation of Women’s Democratic Club, former Democratic 9th Congressional District candidate Judy Baker conducted a presentation on the political nuts and bolts of the district.

The meeting was held at Democrat Days on Saturday in Hannibal.

Baker, a former state representative from Columbia, discussed her losing campaign against former state tourism director and former state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, a Republican from St. Elizabeth, and with the help of her strategist Sean Gagan, talked about the district and what it will take to flip it Democratic in 2010.

The question is whether Democrats -- who came close to picking up the seat in 2008, with Baker losing to Luetkemeyer by only 2.5 percent of the vote -- can overtake Luetkemeyer in 2010 when it is not an open seat race.

The 9th District, which is geographically the largest congressional district in Missouri, spans all the way from the Iowa border down to below the Missouri River. It spans 25 counties and includes one major population center, Columbia, but a majority of its population comes from more rural counties, such as Miller and Osage.

During the 2008 campaign, Baker said she was able to keep the race close because she maximized her turnout in Boone County, which contains MU, Stephens College and Columbia College, while winning a few upstate districts and keeping a few others within a few hundred votes. She also said $1 million investment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also helped her chances.

Luetkemeyer had a strong base of support in the southern part of the district, including the Camden and St. Charles districts, where he beat Baker by more than 3,000 votes in each.

Gagen said the 2010 off-year race could help drive down turnout in the rural areas of the county and help a Democrat defeat Luetkemeyer.

“It is a district that is tough, but it is better in the off year,” Gagen said.

Baker said the increased voter registration of younger voters in Boone County by the Barack Obama presidential campaign would ensure a large turnout in 2010.

“We need to stay strong in the Boone County area,” Baker said. “It was so important to have the Obama bump.”

Baker said the congressional race would have gone to the Democrats if 4,000 voters had changed from Luetkemeyer to Baker, which amounts to less than 200 votes per district.

Baker got the most votes ever from a Democratic candidate running in the 9th District. Kenny Hulshof, a Republican from Columbia who lost a bid for governor last year, held the seat for 12 years before the 2008 race, but voters in the district tended toward Democratic candidates in earlier elections.

But the district’s boundaries are projected to be withdrawn after the U.S. Census in 2010.

“We have got to count for ourselves, and if we don’t we are not going to have a voice,” Smith said. “If we lose one of those districts we lose representation.”

During the meeting, Smith said residents in Missouri should fill out their census forms promptly to prevent the projected loss of a congressional seat, which would go into effect in 2012.

Baker would not say for certain if she would run for any office, local or statewide, in 2010. She said at this point, she is keeping her options open. She did find time to joke about her lessons learned from her run in 2008.

“I like to say that I didn’t lose, I’m just learning how to win,” Baker said.