Column:

Despite media coverage, Specter's defection changes nothing

Specter's prime concern is staying in the Senate.

By Nate Kennedy

Published May 1, 2009

Everyone was tweeting, Facebook status-ing and OMG-ing about U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Penn., switching parties Tuesday, but for anyone who keeps track of politics it wasn't totally unexpected that he would be pulling a Chris Koster.

For months there has been speculation regarding Specter's decision on the Employee Free Choice Act and how that would impact his re-election chances. If he supported it, he would almost certainly lose the closed Republican primary in which 200,000 moderate Republican voters -- his base -- switched registration to vote in the Democratic presidential primary last year.

Specter only eked out a 1 percent victory in the 2004 primary against Pat Toomey, who is again running for the nomination (and beating Specter by 30 points in the polls). But Pennsylvania has a high population of blue-collar, unionized workers who would almost certainly vote against him if he opposed EFCA in the general election.

I thought if Specter said he would vote against EFCA, which he ended up doing, he would stay in the Republican Party and fight out the primary. So the defection does come as a slight surprise to me since he said he would vote against EFCA and then switch parties.

It certainly is big news, but it doesn't make his re-election chances much easier in the Democratic primary, either. Granted, those 200,000 moderate Republicans will probably vote for him again, but it will be an uphill climb if one of the well-known Pennsylvania Democrats gets into the race.

As far as becoming the 60th Democrat in the Senate, it actually doesn't mean Harry Reid will have a filibuster-proof majority.

Obviously, Specter won't be on board for EFCA, but I think the renewed pressure from lobbyists, unions and his new party members will only intensify. President Obama may be expecting his record to swing toward the left since he said Wednesday that Specter will now be able to "vote his conscience."

Specter has been voting about 70 percent of the time with the Democratic Party so far this year anyway, and will probably continue to do so.

Many people have said that the move was merely for political opportunity, and Specter was pretty frank about that. It was interesting to see the immediate reactions from Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, head of the National Republican Senate Committee, and liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas. Obviously they never agree on anything, but they both were in agreement on Specter's switch.

Cornyn's statement from the NRSC:

"Senator Specter's decision today represents the height of political self-preservation. While this presents a short-term disappointment, voters next year will have a clear choice to cast their ballots for a potentially unbridled Democrat super-majority versus the system of checks-and-balances that Americans deserve."

From Moulitsas' blog DailyKos.com:

"This move is about political survival, and nothing more. Specter's overriding concern is staying in the Senate, and he'll bend whatever conviction is necessary to make that happen. And since it was clear he wasn't going to survive a primary challenge, well, he did what he needed to do. I wouldn't be surprised, if the Dems pick up a good primary challenger to Specter, for the incumbent to suddenly re-find religion on EFCA. It's not as if Specter believes in anything beyond his title and choice parking spot near the Capitol."

Harsh words, but true.

So, in reality, Specter will be in the same blue-dog Democrat crowd who are caving to Republicans and throwing up road blocks to Obama's policies on health care reform and employment that the American people voted for overwhelmingly in the historic 2008 election.

Nate Kennedy is the former chairman of the Young Democrats of Missouri College Federation. He can be reached at nkennedy@themaneater.com.