Poll showing Blunt lead leaves out Columbia area, young voters
The poll showed Blunt’s largest lead to date.
Oct. 15, 2010
U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt leads Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan by 13 percentage points in the race to become one of Missouri’s U.S. senators, according to a new poll by CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation. The poll states that 53 percent of likely voters in the Nov. 2 election will vote for Blunt, a Republican, with only 40 percent voting for Carnahan, a Democrat. Even though the poll breaks down the Missouri Senate race results into age and region, the poll does not take into account voters between the ages of 18 and 34 or the east-central region of the state, which includes Columbia.
The omission of voters aged 18 to 34 and from the east central region of the state could have impacted the actual outcomes of the poll since Columbia, as part of this region, is home to MU and a diverse population and, subsequently, a partially politically active community.
The poll, which has a 3.5 percent margin of error, shows Blunt leading Carnahan by 18 points in the Kansas City region, while Carnahan is up by eight points in the St. Louis area. Blunt also holds a 41-point lead in southern Missouri, but the candidates are evenly matched in the northern region of the state.
Predictably, the poll shows that both Carnahan and Blunt hold vast leads over voters within their own parties. Blunt also has a lead over Carnahan among men and also women voters with Blunt leading by 58 to 35 percent among men and 49 to 44 percent among women.
“Roy Blunt is achieving what many Republicans can only wish for," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland told the news network. "He has nearly a majority of the women’s vote in Missouri. That’s bad news for any Democrat, but for a Democratic woman, it’s a major problem.”
Carnahan’s campaign pointed out the CNN poll is inaccurate because it does not include all of the information necessary to take an accurate poll, such as the opinion of voters between the ages of 18 and 34.
Rasmussen Reports and Daily Kos, which collect public opinion polls, also show Blunt leading Carnahan in the state’s senate race, but at a smaller margin then the CNN poll. Rasmussen puts Blunt eight points ahead of his Democratic counterpart, and Daily Kos places him ahead by seven points.
Linden Zakula, a spokesman for Carnahan, noted the campaign was focused on talking to voters and telling the truth about Blunt’s policies.
“We are focused on talking to as many voters in the next 19 days as possible,” Zakula said. “Blunt and his special-interest friends know that voters are rejecting his 14-year Washington record of waste, corruption and sticking it to the middle class, which is why they have spent over $8 million attacking Robin.”
The winner of November’s election will replace retiring Sen. Kit Bond, a Republican.
The poll also took note of Missouri voters’ approval of President Barack Obama’s handling of his job as president. Although 34 percent of voters said they approved of Obama’s job, 61 percent said they disapproved.